BATE BORISOV – HJK HELSINKI
Interesante partido de previa de Champions league entre dos equipos de nivel parecido. Estamos ante dos escuadras que ansían llegar alguna vez a la fase final de la Champions League y este es un buen momento para poder acceder a las rondas finales. Si bien el equipo bielorruso tiene mucha más experiencia en competiciones europeas (sobre todo la antigua copa de la UEFA) . Son dos equipos que , a priori, no se temen. Bate Borisov es un equipo referente en la débil liga de Bielorrusia, un país al que , principalmente por motivos económicos , no se puede acceder a grandes fichas ni grandes plantillas, aunque tiene una liga con un par de equipos (a lo sumo 3) que son fuertes. Bate Borisov domina imperialmente su liga , siendo primero y ganando 14 de los 17 partidos disputados .
HJK Helsinki también es lider de su liga y , quizá haya un mejor nivel que en la bielorrusa porque los equipos son más parejos y están haciendo un papel más que respetable en las rondas previas de la UEFA. Los dos equipos empiezan esta eliminatoria con un buen nivel físico ya que sus competiciones domésticas están mediando el ecuador de las mismas.
BATE estuvo exento de la segunda ronda, donde sí empezó el Helsinki. Derrotando estos de forma muy cómoda y sin apretar el acelerador al Vikingur de las Islas Feore ( 1-2 fuera y 3-1 en casa ) . Analizaremos los 3 aspectos básicos que recomendamos y sus cuota en las 3 casas más populares de apuestas :
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| 1X2 | 1 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.60 |
| 1X2 | 1X | 1.10 | 1,12 | 1.12 |
| GOLES | -2,5 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.62 |
De estas cuotas sacamos que lo ideal será apostar a -2’5 goles . Ya que será un encuentro muy igualado donde veremos a un Helsinki muy defensivo y que no es especialmente habil en las contras (en su país siempre juegan al dominio). Bate Borisov saldrá con la obligación de intentar hacer un gol en su casa.
Como posibles resultados vemos : 0-0 / 1-0 / 1-1
KUKESI – QARABAG
Quizá sea Kukesi uno de los equipos más débiles de la categoría que tuvo la suerte de encontrarse en primera ronda ante un inocente equipo maltés, como es el Valetta FC. Contra el que pasó serias dificultades para poder eliminarlo ( Kukesi 0-Valetta 0 , Valetta 1- Kukesi 1) . La liga albanesa aún no ha comenzado por lo que tienen poco recorrido físico aún los albaneses.
Qarabag se está convirtiendo poco a poco en uno de los fijos de las rondas finales del campeonato europeo. Un buen equipo , una buena planificación y dinero ahorrado de las rondas finales europeas hacen que puedan hacer buenas plantillas trayendo a sus filas lo mejor de los descartes de Rusia, Turquía, Armenia, etc etc etc. Eso le hace ser un equipo bastante competitivo e ideal como 3º o 4º, en categoría, de las fases de grupo. Si bien aun no ha comenzado su liga doméstica, Qarabag arrasó, literalmente, el curso pasado siendo lider indiscutible en su categoría. El partido se decantará claramente para Qarabag que , a buen seguro, saldrá a cerrar la eliminatoria en el partido de ida en tierras albanesas.
Nuestro análisis :
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| 1X2 | 2 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
| 1X2 | 2X | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| GOLES | -2.5 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.50 |
De estas cuota sacamos la conclusión que lo ideal será apostar a victoria de Qarabag, pues está bien pagada, por lo general en las casa de apuestas.
Como posibles resultados vemos : / 0-1 / 0-2 / 1-2
LUDOGORETS – VIDEOTÓN
Si hay un equipo que por méritos propios está deseando llegar a la liga de Campeones es el Ludogorets. Equipo de una evolución bestial en los últimos 5-6 años y ha ido creciendo exponencialmente desbancando a los clásicos búlgaros como son el CSKA de Sofia , Levski, etc… La pasada campaña Ludogorets perdió solo dos partidos y este año conserva muchos jugadores del año pasado. La liga Bulgara es un poco mejor que la del Videotón, equipo húngaro, que dio la sorpresa siendo campeón con una campaña memorable. No obstante el nivel de Ludogorets es mucho mejor. En primera los del Videotón eliminaron con muchas dificultades al campeón de una liga muy menor como es la de Luxemburgo (1-1/2-1). Los búlgaros aplastaron a los irlandeses del norte del Crusaders (7-0/2-0) . La eliminatoria, salvo sorpresas muy inesperadas , se decantará totalmente para Ludogorets. Estas son las facetas a examinar y nuestro consejo
(Nota : No recomendamos el “1” que, aunque es seguro la cuota es muy débil, tanto como el 1X.)
BET365 W.HILL BWIN
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| GOLES | +2.5 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2 |
Pensamos que un buen pronóstico es apostar por +2’5 goles. Ludogorets tiene calidad suficiente para hacer más de dos goles en su casa y ante un débil y defensivo Videotón que jugará a la defensiva. Resultados que vemos posibles : 2-0/3-0
AJAX – STURM GRAZ
Ajax , equipo conocido de sobra en el ámbito europeo, que ha bajado bastante de nivel en la última década pero sigue siendo élite europea y en su país, Holanda. Donde tiene una competición doméstica con equipo bastantes duros como PSV, Feyenoord, AZ , etc… En términos generales la liga holandesa es mucho más competitiva que la austríaca. No obstante el Sturm Graz sorprendió la pasada campaña, a propios y extraños, al quedar en segunda posición y desbancando de la máxima competición europa a equipos ya establecidos en el panorama como Rapad de Viena y Austria de Viena.
A priori se espera un partido con pocos goles pero de clara dominancia por parte del equipo holandés. Aunque es un equipo capaz de lo mejor y lo peor. Así pues estudiamos las cuotas e indicamos qué es lo más aceptable para apostar. Ninguno de los dos equipos ha comenzado su liga doméstica . Pero quizá Sturm esté con más fondo ya que su liga empieza este mismo fin de semana.
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| 1X2 | 1 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.36 |
| 1X2 | 1X/ X2 NO RECOMENDADO | |||
| GOLES | -2.5 | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2 |
Recomendamos apostar a -2’5 goles. Las cuotas del mercado son bastante interesantes. No vemos plausible que Sturm Graz marque ni tampoco vemos solventada esta eliminatoria en este primer partido. Resultados posible 1-0/2-0 .
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