internacional p.a.-botafogo (29 Julio 18, 21:00 horas)
Interesante partido de la , siempre competitiva, liga brasileña. Dos históricos se enfrentan una vez más en esta apasionante liga, si bien Botafogo aún ansía tiempos pasados que , desde luego, fueron mucho mejores. Internacional lleva un promedio de 10 puntos de los últimos 15 disputados y se sitúa en una cómoda 5ª plaza a solo tres puntos del potente Sao Paulo. Esta buena racha podría haber sido mejor para los de Porto Alegre si no hubieran caído, de forma bastante sorpresiva, ante un inferior América Mineiro. Por otra parte Botafogo está justo en el ecuador de la tabla clasificatoria y ya empiezan a encenderse las alarmas de que pudiera perder comba con los puestos nobles de la tabla brasileña. Pormedia 7 puntos de los últimos 15, aceptable pero no plausible. Siempre se espera mucho más de Botafogo y, sin duda, su afición así se lo pide partido tras partido. Tras dos derrotas consecutivos contra Corinthians y Flamengo , consiguieron vencer al siempre imprevisible Chapecoense. No obstante y, aunque solo ganaran 1-0, se está promediando bastantes goles en los partidos de Botafogo. Pasemos pues, teniendo en cuenta estos datos y otros a nuestra recomendación .
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| 1X2 | NO | NO | NO | NO |
| 1X2 | X2 | 2.37 | 2.15 | 2.20 |
| GOLES | +2’5 | 2.15 | 1.90 | 2.10 |
De estas cuotas deducimos que para nada es conveniente apostar a 1-X-2, son dos equipos de un nivel bastante parecido, quizá Internacional tenga algo más de calidad ( y moral ) a la hora de afrontar este partido pero no tiene segura la victoria. La cuota es muy arriesgada ( solo 1.60 de media en las 3 casas de referencia ). Una cuota bastante interesante sería apostar al X2 para Botafogo, está muy bien pagada. O (sin combinarla), a +2’5 goles el partido. Botafogo debe salir a sacar algo positivo o se le escapara la zona alta. Resultados probables 1-1/2-1/1-2
flamengo – sport recife (29 julio 18, 21:00)
Flamengo es el líder de la liga brasileña pero en los últimos 5 partidos se ha visto una pequeña bajada de nivel ( 8 puntos de los 15 en liza ). Si bien no debería representar problemas este partido para el equipo local , sí debemos tener precaución a la hora de apostar ya que los de Recibe, aún promediando solo 1 mísero punto de los últimos 15 , sigue conservando una honorable 12ª posición. También es cierto que Recife ha perdido por la mínima ante equipos potentes. ¿Será este el partido donde acabe la mala racha de Recife? . Tenemos serias dudas aunque Recife sigue siendo uno de los aspirantes a ocupar puestos de competición internacional americana para la próxima temporada.
Nuestro análisis :
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| 1X2 | 1 | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| 1X2 | NO | NO | NO | NO |
| GOLES | +1’5 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.30 |
De estas cuota sacamos la conclusión que lo ideal será apostar a victoria de Flamengo, pues está bien pagada teniendo en cuenta la diferencia de potencial, y combinarlo con +1’5 goles para pasar del 1.80/1 euro .
Como posibles resultados vemos : 2-0 / 2-1 / 1-1
cruzeiro – sao paulo (29-7-18, 21:00)
Quizá el partido de la jornada en la liga brasileña. Partidazo más bien. Los chicos del Cruzeiro ocupan una honorable 6ª posición sin ser llamados, al menos este año, a grandes objetivos en la liga carioca. El equipo azul promedia 7 puntos de los últimos 15 , así pues está manteniendo una velocidad de crucero que es la que se le puede exigir. En casa se están mostrando fuertes ganando 5 de los 7 partidos disputando y encajando solo 4 goles. En frente Sao Paulo. Un promedio muy prometedor de 12 de los últimos 15 disputados ha hecho que se coloquen segundos en la tabla a solo dos puntos del líder Flamengo. Como decimos después de vencer de forma seguida 4 partidos tuvieron un «perdonable» fallo ante Gremio perdiendo por la mínima. Prevemos un partido de pocos goles. Sao Paulo no es especialmente contudente fuera de casa ( 3 victorias de 8 partidos disputados ) y tampoco muy goleador , promedian 1’1 goles fuera de casa. Esto hace que junto con la fortaleza defensiva de los del Cruzeiro saquemos estas conclusiones :
BET365 W.HILL BWIN
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| GOLES | -2’5 | 1.65 | 1.60 | 1.65 |
| 1X2 | X2 | 2.15 | 2.00 | 2.10 |
Pensamos que un buen pronóstico el apostar a – 2’5 goles Y OJO con la cuota que ofrecen los mercados al X2. Más bien parecen sorprendentes y quizá con algo de «información privilegiada». Es totalmente pausible un X2 a ese mercado. Combinar X2 con -2’5 goles da una cuota bastante interesante. Resultados probables : 0-0 /1-0 / 1-1/ 0-1
at. paranaense – vitoria ( 29-7-18, 21:00 )
Los de Paraná y los de Vitoria son dos equipos en apuros. Si bien los primeros ocupan la penúltima posición de la tabla con solo 10 puntos, los otros están 13º con 18 puntos pero a solo 2 del descenso. Paranaense tiene necesidad vital de ganar el partido , mientras los muchachos de Vitoria quieren despegarse del agobio que supone estar a solo 2 puntos del descenso. Paranaense promedia solo 1 punto de los ultimos 15 disputados . En casa solo han vencido en dos ocasiones de 6 partidos disputados lo que nos hace pensar que , probáblemente, sea uno de los firmes candidatos a ocupar puesto en Serie B la próxima temporada. En cuanto a Vitoria, mantiene velocidad de crucero, tras un mal comienzo de liga ( 7 puntos de 15 en liza ). Fuera de casa los resultados están siendo bastante mediocres, siendo el equipo más goleado fuera. Paranaense está promediando cerca de 2 goles por partido. Esta circunstancia, y a pesar de la diferencia en la tabla, nos hace ver que es muy probable acertar el pronostico de AMBOS MARCAN. Todo lo demás es bastante riesgo.
| BET365 | WILLIAM HILL | BWIN | ||
| 1X2 | NO RECOMENDADO | |||
| 1X2 | DOBLE OPORT. NO RECOMENDADA | |||
| GOLES | AMBOS MARCAN | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
Recomendamos apostar a AMBOS MARCAN. Vitoria es el equipo más goleado fuera de casa y Atlético Parananese promedia cerca de dos goles en casa por partido. Resultados probables : 1-1 / 2-2 / 1-0
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